FREE STARS: Children of Infinity crowdfunding on Kickstarter NOW (until May 17th 2024)

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Alvarin
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Re: FREE STARS: Children of Infinity crowdfunding on Kickstarter NOW (until May 17th 2024)

Post by Alvarin »

The projections are weirdly optimistic, even the "low" value. To me it looks like it'll conclude around 500K.
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Spaceport

Re: FREE STARS: Children of Infinity crowdfunding on Kickstarter NOW (until May 17th 2024)

Post by Spaceport »

There are 21 days left to go, so if it ends at $500k, it would have averaged $4,000 in daily pledges between now and the end of the campaign.

Following the initial three day surge, it had been taking in around $20,000 a day. That number fell to just under $9,000 a day on the 24th and today will likely bring the total up past $420k. If this becomes the new norm, it will end closer to $600,000. Keep in mind, though, that while daily pledges may drop off again, we'll also likely see surges during select promotional efforts and there will be a large surge in the final days of the campaign. Most funding for Kickstarter projects typically comes in the first and final 72 hours, with the latter often bringing in around half as much as the former. In this case, half of the first 72 hours is approximately $140k, so I'd be surprised if it brought in less than another $200k during the next three weeks.

I'm one of those people who want to donate but haven't yet decided how much. As someone who owns and proudly displays the original SC2 MS-DOS box, I have my eye on some of the physical collectables and don't feel like I need to rush to decide what tier is best for me. I missed the initial announcement, so I couldn't have helped by pledging early, and I also want to see if giving a little more last minute might help push it past a stretch goal. I know I can increase my initial pledge and there will likely be people who do just that (another thing to keep in mind when coming up with projections), but I prefer to make a single payment.

We're also talking about a sequel to a 30+ year old game here, so unlike campaigns for brand new projects, this one has a lot of fans who have not been actively following the development news and will instead learn about the Kickstarter campaign from other outlets promoting it and word of mouth.

Take another campaign for another (albeit, better known) legacy franchise as an example. "Shadowrun Returns" was a 2013 video game that raised $1.8 million out of its $400k goal. Per https://www.kicktraq.com/projects/16132 ... hart-daily the first three days brought in around $612k. Toward the middle, there was a two day spike that collectively brought in around $170k. Then, although, the last day total was very low for some reason, it made almost $307k during the three preceding days, which is just about half of the first 72 hour total. I was a fan of Sega Genesis' "Shadowrun" game and I learned about the campaign from a news article maybe a couple weeks after it was launched. I didn't end up donating, but that was the first time I ever considered helping fund a Kickstarter campaign, and I'm sure there were other late comers with fond memories of the old video games, tabletop games, and books who did contribute.
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Re: FREE STARS: Children of Infinity crowdfunding on Kickstarter NOW (until May 17th 2024)

Post by krulle »

It will be a single payment anyway, I pledged day 4 (needed to find someone who lets me use their credit card), but I got informed it has not yetbeen billed.
Kickstarter says, they'll bill AFTER the last day, all in one go.
I presume kickstarter does this to keep costs of payments lower, because increased pledges will be billed withthe same booking on your card.

And yes, I fear many old fans don't hear about this game on time either.
I contacted some of my school friends back then and told them about this sequel, .... but it's weird having had only yearly contacts for (nearly) 30 years, and then call with the main topic of "oh my god a new melee, we can play again"!
(with one I had sparse timewarp contact until some 11 years ago or so, when I refurbished our house and refocused for a long while)

And since the game will be available in DRM free versions, we might see the school piracy with this game as well.
I hope this won't hurt post-publication sales (it's why I took the two-licenses-reward).


And yes, I might increase my pledge as well, since I'd love to have physical rewards (pins/map/BOX/...)
But the shipping costs to Europe make any physical rewards expensive. I don't like paying for shipping.
I am wondering if I'll simply take the digital map and find someone here who can print it for me, and gift [part of] the saved shipping costs post-kickstarter via patreon or some other payment system...


I never counted how many licenses I have for SC2, but it are at least 4 (one as part of the SC3 box, which also included a copy of SC1).
and I have at least two maps.
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Re: FREE STARS: Children of Infinity crowdfunding on Kickstarter NOW (until May 17th 2024)

Post by Guest »

Yeah, by payment I mean the actual act of me inputting an amount. I'm not an impulsive shopper and want to make a singular decision after taking my time to weigh all the factors. That personality trait and being motivated by a hard deadline are big reasons why pledges increase so much in the last 72 hours.

I like the pins, but my favorite ship is not one of the current options and Dan has talked about possibly of doing more merch later on, so I may wait to see if I can buy the ones I want from a larger selection. Only the 60-page lorebook, which I do want, and the patch, which doesn't appeal to me, are labeled as limited edition, so I'm guessing stickers, pins, and the star map will probably be made available for sale later.

But it depends. I'm interested in there being console ports (even though I only intend to play on PC) because I have a greater chance of getting my niece into the game if she can play it on her Switch, and I'm a huge fan of the voice-overs in the 3DO version, so if I think my pledge can help the campaign reach one of those stretch goals that will likely motivate me to pick a tier with rewards that I'd otherwise pass on.
krulle
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Re: FREE STARS: Children of Infinity crowdfunding on Kickstarter NOW (until May 17th 2024)

Post by krulle »

Ah, yeah...

Indeed, making only one decision instead of amending your previous decision to up your pledge....

Well ,at the time I pledged, there was only one tier with two licences. (by now they confirmed that the image with the table of rewards and tiers is wrong for the Digital Founders, but to ensure nobody loses anything they selected, the Digital Founders does include two keys now.
Image


I might buy additional one license post-release (so I can join the kids), but that will depend on other factors as well.
(like: I would need additional PCs to enjoy that).

But let's be honest: DRM free would enable to just use a priated copy formthe one or two hours I would be joining them for a 3 person party.
(or I'll just join them on the shared keyboard in adventure mode, now this got funded)
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Re: FREE STARS: Children of Infinity crowdfunding on Kickstarter NOW (until May 17th 2024)

Post by Frumple »

I went through my kickstarter backer history and found the latest toejam and earl game. It's similar indie game with similar backer counts and and funding levels (so far).

https://www.kicktraq.com/projects/15781 ... he-groove/

Free Stars CoI has about 4,000 less backers than Toejam ended up with. But they also gained 3000 of those backers in the last 3-4 days.

I think the 670,000 goal is totally doable, in fact I'll be highly dubious and disappointed if it doesn't reach that. If it doesn't, where are all the Star Control fans at? This is the moment.

I assume there will be a backerit phase, where *campers* that forget about the deadline or miss this kickstarter period all together can donate. In most backerkit phases, new backerkit money is added to the overall goal. Also, the creators can and generally add new items or goals in the backerkit phase to keep money coming in.

That's why I'm wildly optimistic about the 670k voice overs goal being met.

If it doesn't hit that, I really do wonder how much the lack of the Star Control name is impacting things. Unless you are superfan like *campers* here and that have already found the kickstarter, it's hard to see the Free Stars name being immediately connected to Star Control 1and 2. But I love the Free Stars name as the Alliance was the protagonist faction and were in both games. I feel like it would be over 1 million final funding if the whole naming and trademark rights weren't an issue. But that is just speculation and we'll never know.
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Alvarin
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Re: FREE STARS: Children of Infinity crowdfunding on Kickstarter NOW (until May 17th 2024)

Post by Alvarin »

Couldn't find daily data on Kickstarter, but Kicktraq has it.
Did my own "predictor" up to day 17 -- https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
I've always believed in logarithmic trends in the crowdfunding and indeed, the R^2 correlation is very high on it -->0.996. It trends toward about 520k.
The more optimistic power series trends towards 590k and has R^2 of lower 0.965 . Neither look like voice-over stretch goal will be met, but who knows what contribution spikes can happen on the last few days of campaign.
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Spaceport

Re: FREE STARS: Children of Infinity crowdfunding on Kickstarter NOW (until May 17th 2024)

Post by Spaceport »

Have you looked into how accurate that same formula is when applied to other successful Kickstarter campaigns at the 17/30 day mark?

There have been numerous efforts to compile samplings of pledge percentages at different stages of successful campaigns and the ones I've read found that around 25% of total pledges (give or take a few percentage points depending in how well-know, marketed, etc., a campaign project is) commonly come in the last 48-72 hours.

Take the "Toejam and Earl" game that Frumple linked to as an example. At 17 days, it reached $280,192 of its $508,578 thirty day total. It then went on to make another $228,386, of which $124,485 (or approximately 24.48% of the total) came in during the last 3 days of the campaign.

The last 3 days are when people who clicked the "Remind Me" button get a notification from Kickstarter, existing contributors decide if they want to increase their pledges, people who had been putting off deciding if they want to pledge/at what amount come out of the woodwork, and campaigns make a final push, which may include increased marketing, content reveals specifically designed to peak interest, and/or more/discounted incentives.

Not in some way accounting for an end of campaign contribution spike for a Kickstarter campaign projection is akin to not including some sort of projection for how earnings will increase during Christmastime if you're a retailer trying to predict your upcoming yearly earnings. That spike is the norm for a successful Kickstarter campaign and there's plenty of data from concluded campaigns that can be used to come up with a range predicting how much of a boost the final days may bring to an existing trend.
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Alvarin
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Re: FREE STARS: Children of Infinity crowdfunding on Kickstarter NOW (until May 17th 2024)

Post by Alvarin »

Browsed through numerous videogame campaigns at over 300% funding and over 75,000 initial goal and indeed, most of them had big pledge spikes at the last three days. Even if at the middle of the period there were just handful of backers a day.
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Re: FREE STARS: Children of Infinity crowdfunding on Kickstarter NOW (until May 17th 2024)

Post by krulle »

So you guys might get your wish of "English voiceovers".

Nice.
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